Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 59.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 58.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Staal
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Staal
Zibanejad
Last 10: Staal 8-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Zibanejad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
Zibanejad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
53.3% (807)
+2.9%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
47.6% (42)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
46.3% (147)
-3.6%
On power play, Staal has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
Staal
Zibanejad
Home
55.4% (699)
49.8% (466)
Away
54.4% (702)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Staal
Zibanejad
P1
55.7%
52.9%
P2
54.7%
51.2%
P3
53.4%
51.7%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 17:12 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |