Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Zegras 39.5% (+16.4%)
H2H factor
Zegras leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 91.7%
Defensive zone
Zegras 61.1%
Neutral zone
Zegras 83.7%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 81.9%
18.1%
81.9%
Staal
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Staal
Zegras
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
4
Staal
Zegras
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
6
Staal
Zegras
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
39.0% (1,703)
+16.9%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
38.5% (148)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
25.0% (8)
+22.9%
On power play, Staal has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Staal
Zegras
Home
56.4% (9,699)
40.5% (908)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Staal
Zegras
P1
55.2%
40.0%
P2
55.9%
38.6%
P3
54.8%
38.2%
OT
56.2%
31.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:02 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 15:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 15:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |