Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Bailey wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.9% vs Stastny 56.3% (-15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 80.2%
Defensive zone
Bailey 57.6%
Neutral zone
Bailey 75.3%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Bailey
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bailey
Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Bailey
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (84)
57.5% (412)
-15.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.0% (65)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
44.4% (9)
+15.6%
On power play, Stastny has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Bailey is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Bailey shoots left. Stastny is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Bailey
Stastny
Home
37.9% (58)
58.3% (276)
Away
47.4% (38)
56.7% (210)
By Period
Bailey
Stastny
P1
47.2%
63.7%
P2
41.7%
57.3%
P3
33.3%
50.4%
Final 5 min
36.0%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
41.7%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |