Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Stastny 55.1% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 50.2%
Defensive zone
Stastny 52.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 55.9%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Bailey
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Bailey
Stastny
Last 10: Bailey 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
4
2
Bailey
Stastny
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
3
Bailey
Stastny
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
Bailey
Stastny
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
54.6% (10,616)
-8.8%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
59.1% (1,994)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
52.9% (1,119)
-13.0%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Bailey
Stastny
Home
46.6% (1,353)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Bailey
Stastny
P1
46.5%
56.3%
P2
44.8%
55.4%
P3
44.4%
53.5%
OT
51.1%
62.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 10, 2014 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 10:26 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 8, 2011 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |