Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.2% vs Hayes 47.8% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 64.3%
Defensive zone
Hayes 60.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 66.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Norris
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Norris
Hayes
Last 10: Norris 3-7 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
Norris
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
Norris
Hayes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Norris
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (2,904)
47.6% (6,698)
+5.0%
Power Play
53.8% (364)
51.7% (702)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
45.4% (696)
+0.0%
On even strength, Norris has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,264).
Norris shoots left. Hayes is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,126).
Home / Away
Norris
Hayes
Home
53.2% (1,778)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
51.3% (1,730)
47.4% (4,114)
By Period
Norris
Hayes
P1
55.6%
47.5%
P2
51.8%
47.7%
P3
50.0%
47.9%
OT
41.5%
54.1%
Final 5 min
53.3%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.3%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Josh Norris |