Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Kastelic 58.1% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 90.0%
Defensive zone
Norris 57.8%
Neutral zone
Norris 74.5%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Norris
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Norris
Kastelic
Last 6: Norris 1-5 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Norris
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
3
Norris
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
60.8% (362)
-10.3%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
83.3% (6)
-35.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
56.2% (146)
-13.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Norris is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Norris shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Norris
Kastelic
Home
48.1% (233)
60.3% (242)
Away
51.6% (246)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Norris
Kastelic
P1
53.1%
58.9%
P2
49.2%
57.3%
P3
48.4%
64.0%
OT
0.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
46.5%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 05:21 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |