Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Norris wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 90.1%
Defensive zone
Norris 54.9%
Neutral zone
Norris 71.7%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Norris
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Norris
Kastelic
Last 7: Norris 1-6 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Norris
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
4
Norris
Kastelic
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
57.0% (1,635)
-4.5%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
80.0% (25)
-26.6%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
53.8% (279)
-8.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Norris is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,321).
Norris shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Home / Away
Norris
Kastelic
Home
53.1% (1,896)
58.7% (904)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
55.2% (1,035)
By Period
Norris
Kastelic
P1
55.5%
58.6%
P2
51.5%
56.5%
P3
50.1%
55.6%
OT
39.5%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.3%
59.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 05:21 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |