Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Norris wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Dowd 48.6% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 76.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 63.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 86.8%
13.2%
86.8%
Norris
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Norris
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Norris
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
51.0% (671)
-0.5%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
0.0% (2)
+47.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
41.5% (224)
+1.4%
On power play, Norris has a +47.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Norris is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Norris shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Norris
Dowd
Home
48.1% (233)
48.2% (471)
Away
51.6% (246)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Norris
Dowd
P1
53.1%
48.3%
P2
49.2%
46.8%
P3
48.4%
51.0%
OT
0.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |