Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Norris wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Dowd 50.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Norris 60.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 59.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Norris
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Norris
Dowd
Last 10: Norris 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
4
1
Norris
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
6
Norris
Dowd
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
6
Norris
Dowd
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
52.3% (6,036)
+0.2%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
56.1% (164)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
44.1% (1,638)
+1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Norris is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,321).
Norris shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Norris
Dowd
Home
53.1% (1,896)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Norris
Dowd
P1
55.5%
51.5%
P2
51.5%
50.4%
P3
50.1%
50.3%
OT
39.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 01:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 13:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 22, 2022 | OT | 00:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |