Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs Nosek 51.4% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 65.2%
Defensive zone
Nosek 70.6%
Neutral zone
Nosek 58.3%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Dowling
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dowling
Nosek
Last 8: Dowling 5-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Dowling
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
5
2
Dowling
Nosek
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
53.0% (400)
-4.3%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
33.3% (12)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
45.5% (44)
+4.5%
On power play, Nosek has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Dowling shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Dowling
Nosek
Home
49.0% (145)
49.6% (244)
Away
47.8% (182)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Dowling
Nosek
P1
48.1%
53.1%
P2
49.1%
51.4%
P3
47.8%
51.1%
Final 5 min
51.5%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 02:56 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 02:51 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:58 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |