Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs Nosek 53.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 60.9%
Defensive zone
Nosek 83.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 67.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Dowling
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dowling
Nosek
Last 8: Dowling 5-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Dowling
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
5
2
Dowling
Nosek
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
54.9% (2,710)
-5.5%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
45.8% (48)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
47.2% (428)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Dowling is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Dowling shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Dowling
Nosek
Home
48.2% (301)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
49.2% (392)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Dowling
Nosek
P1
47.6%
52.2%
P2
50.4%
54.1%
P3
48.3%
54.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 02:56 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 02:51 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:58 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |