Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 63.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Hayes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Hayes
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
45.8% (755)
-3.1%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
48.3% (60)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
27.6% (29)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
43.5% (232)
49.5% (396)
Away
42.4% (375)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
40.1%
50.2%
P2
44.8%
43.8%
P3
42.4%
41.4%
OT
80.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.3%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
42.8%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |