Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 31.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-15.3%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Hayes
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
49.7% (1,038)
-17.8%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
63.7% (157)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
34.4% (32)
-34.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
30.6% (49)
53.1% (618)
Away
40.4% (57)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
22.9%
49.3%
P2
40.0%
53.0%
P3
44.4%
50.7%
Final 5 min
30.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%