Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+5.0%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 72.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Hayes
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
44.7% (1,053)
+3.8%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
36.8% (95)
+16.5%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
65.0% (20)
-6.7%
On power play, Hayes has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (237).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
50.8% (313)
49.4% (553)
Away
48.2% (363)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
52.3%
45.3%
P2
47.7%
42.7%
P3
48.4%
45.1%
OT
50.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
50.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
49.4%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
44.4%