Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 42.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 44.1% vs Zacha 51.9% (-14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 65.4%
Defensive zone
Hayes 60.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 68.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Hayes
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hayes
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Hayes
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Hayes
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
33.3% (81)
53.7% (497)
-20.4%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
54.8% (84)
+9.5%
On even strength, Zacha has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Hayes is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (52).
Hayes shoots left. Zacha is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Hayes
Zacha
Home
30.6% (49)
51.0% (335)
Away
45.7% (46)
53.5% (310)
By Period
Hayes
Zacha
P1
24.2%
60.0%
P2
43.8%
48.1%
P3
46.7%
48.8%
Final 5 min
31.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
37.9%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |