Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs Zacha 51.8% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 72.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 64.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 71.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Hayes
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hayes
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Hayes
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Hayes
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
53.0% (700)
-21.1%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
54.1% (109)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
39.2% (74)
-39.2%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Hayes is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Hayes shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Hayes
Zacha
Home
30.6% (49)
51.6% (438)
Away
40.4% (57)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Hayes
Zacha
P1
22.9%
57.0%
P2
40.0%
48.9%
P3
44.4%
50.5%
Final 5 min
30.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |