Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.8% vs Zacha 49.1% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 23-20 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 60.4%
Defensive zone
Hayes 51.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 54.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Hayes
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
20
(43 meetings)
23
20
Hayes
Zacha
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
10
10
Hayes
Zacha
20 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
Hayes
Zacha
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
8
5
Hayes
Zacha
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (6,698)
48.8% (4,953)
-1.2%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
55.8% (788)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (696)
42.0% (547)
+3.4%
On power play, Zacha has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Hayes is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,126).
Hayes shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,816).
Home / Away
Hayes
Zacha
Home
48.1% (3,982)
49.6% (3,278)
Away
47.4% (4,114)
48.5% (3,010)
By Period
Hayes
Zacha
P1
47.5%
49.9%
P2
47.7%
49.1%
P3
47.9%
47.9%
OT
54.1%
54.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
47.7%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 2 | 04:22 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 05:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:11 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 12:59 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 03:49 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 01:06 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 2 | 09:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 2 | 09:38 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 2 | 09:32 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |