Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Kuraly 50.4% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 31-19 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 90.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 60.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 68.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Hayes
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
31
(50 meetings)
19
31
Hayes
Kuraly
Last 10: Hayes 3-7 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
15
4
Hayes
Kuraly
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
17
Hayes
Kuraly
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
10
Hayes
Kuraly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
51.6% (5,161)
-4.1%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
56.4% (101)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
44.4% (1,091)
+0.9%
On power play, Kuraly has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Home / Away
Hayes
Kuraly
Home
48.1% (3,982)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Hayes
Kuraly
P1
47.5%
51.2%
P2
47.6%
50.0%
P3
47.9%
50.2%
OT
54.1%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2025 | 1 | 19:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 21, 2025 | 1 | 02:12 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:09 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 05:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |