Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 50.6%). Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Frost 50.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 75.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 74.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Eller
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
15
(37 meetings)
22
15
Eller
Frost
Last 10: Eller 7-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
4
Eller
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
10
5
Eller
Frost
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
9
6
Eller
Frost
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
49.7% (3,652)
+1.4%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
55.4% (632)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
55.0% (40)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Eller shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Eller
Frost
Home
51.4% (6,122)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Eller
Frost
P1
51.2%
51.2%
P2
50.1%
51.3%
P3
50.2%
48.8%
OT
56.7%
64.9%
Final 5 min
49.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 15:10 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:10 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 06:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 01:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 02:04 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:28 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |