Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Cates 45.1% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 64.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Carlsson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carlsson
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Carlsson
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
46.7% (912)
-4.9%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
33.9% (56)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
35.0% (137)
+3.7%
On even strength, Cates has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Carlsson shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Cates
Home
44.5% (362)
46.1% (521)
Away
38.3% (368)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Carlsson
Cates
P1
46.3%
48.0%
P2
35.1%
42.3%
P3
43.9%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
31.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
41.4%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |