Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Cates 43.2% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 72.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 55.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 60.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Carlsson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Carlsson
Cates
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Carlsson
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Carlsson
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
3
Carlsson
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
44.1% (2,786)
-3.2%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
42.9% (254)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
34.9% (373)
-0.2%
On even strength, Cates has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Carlsson shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Cates
Home
42.2% (1,051)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Carlsson
Cates
P1
43.3%
44.5%
P2
36.2%
43.7%
P3
43.3%
41.2%
OT
40.7%
29.4%
Final 5 min
39.8%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 03:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |