Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Cates 45.5% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 53.3%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 55.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Carlsson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Carlsson
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Carlsson
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
45.5% (756)
-0.5%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
42.1% (114)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
44.7% (47)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Cates
Home
42.5% (435)
46.2% (468)
Away
45.5% (429)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Carlsson
Cates
P1
45.3%
46.0%
P2
38.7%
47.5%
P3
48.5%
42.1%
OT
41.7%
18.2%
Final 5 min
38.4%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |