Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Johnston 48.0% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 53.2%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 53.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Carlsson
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carlsson
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Carlsson
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
47.3% (666)
-2.3%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
50.7% (69)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
51.4% (35)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Johnston
Home
42.5% (435)
47.5% (364)
Away
45.5% (429)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Carlsson
Johnston
P1
45.3%
49.4%
P2
38.7%
46.9%
P3
48.5%
47.1%
OT
41.7%
47.1%
Final 5 min
38.4%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |