Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Johnston 49.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 65.0%
Defensive zone
Johnston 85.1%
Neutral zone
Johnston 78.7%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 77.1%
22.9%
77.1%
Carlsson
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Carlsson
Johnston
Last 10: Carlsson 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
1
Carlsson
Johnston
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
3
Carlsson
Johnston
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Carlsson
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
49.1% (2,232)
-8.2%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
52.5% (179)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
44.7% (237)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Johnston
Home
42.2% (1,051)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Carlsson
Johnston
P1
43.3%
50.0%
P2
36.2%
48.1%
P3
43.3%
48.6%
OT
40.7%
51.5%
Final 5 min
39.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |