Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Nosek 53.6% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 54.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 83.7%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 70.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Kastelic
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Kastelic
Nosek
Last 10: Kastelic 8-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kastelic
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
1
Kastelic
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
0
Kastelic
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,635)
54.9% (2,710)
+2.1%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
45.8% (48)
+34.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (279)
47.2% (428)
+6.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,445).
Kastelic shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Nosek
Home
58.7% (904)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
55.2% (1,035)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Kastelic
Nosek
P1
58.6%
52.2%
P2
56.5%
54.1%
P3
55.6%
54.7%
OT
53.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 01:56 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |