Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Necas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Necas wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Necas 41.9% vs Dowd 50.8% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Necas 88.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 71.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Necas
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Necas
Dowd
Last 9: Necas 5-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Necas
4
0
Necas
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Necas
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Necas
1
0
Necas
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Necas
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (797)
52.6% (5,850)
-11.9%
Power Play
40.0% (135)
56.1% (164)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (37)
43.9% (1,600)
+10.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Necas is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Necas shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,600).
Home / Away
Necas
Dowd
Home
39.2% (492)
52.1% (3,753)
Away
43.0% (477)
49.6% (3,862)
By Period
Necas
Dowd
P1
39.9%
51.9%
P2
40.6%
50.7%
P3
43.3%
50.1%
OT
41.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
42.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Necas
36.0%▼
38.0%
41.1%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:14 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 16:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 10:28 | Neutral | Martin Necas |