Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.1% vs Aho 50.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 55.0%
Defensive zone
McTavish 55.2%
Neutral zone
McTavish 55.3%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
McTavish
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McTavish
Aho
Last 5: McTavish 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McTavish
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (618)
50.5% (878)
-2.9%
Power Play
58.3% (103)
53.5% (144)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
44.3% (61)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
McTavish shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
McTavish
Aho
Home
52.2% (391)
53.8% (571)
Away
45.2% (336)
46.9% (512)
By Period
McTavish
Aho
P1
50.2%
49.0%
P2
47.7%
51.7%
P3
49.2%
50.3%
OT
40.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.6%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |