Scouting Report
Tom Wilson holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 43.1% vs right-shot opponents — Wilson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Wilson 48.5% (-4.1%)
Offensive zone
Barzal 54.8%
Defensive zone
Barzal 56.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 51.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Barzal
Wilson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Wilson
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
41.7% (12)
-0.8%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
55.6% (9)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
40.0% (15)
-11.4%
On power play, Wilson has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wilson shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Barzal shoots right. Wilson is 75.0% vs right-shot opponents (4).
Home / Away
Barzal
Wilson
Home
39.2% (250)
33.3% (15)
Away
41.3% (264)
52.4% (21)
By Period
Barzal
Wilson
P1
46.3%
46.7%
P2
36.7%
50.0%
P3
38.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.1%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Wilson
38.0%▬
39.0%
44.4%