Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wilson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Wilson 42.4% (+1.5%)
Offensive zone
Barzal 51.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 53.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Barzal
Wilson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Wilson
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
40.7% (241)
+1.2%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
38.5% (65)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
41.3% (104)
+1.0%
On power play, Barzal has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wilson shoots right. Barzal is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,098).
Barzal shoots right. Wilson is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
Barzal
Wilson
Home
43.2% (1,901)
33.7% (187)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
46.2% (223)
By Period
Barzal
Wilson
P1
40.6%
42.0%
P2
44.6%
44.4%
P3
41.1%
33.3%
OT
27.6%
16.7%
Final 5 min
40.0%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Wilson
38.0%▬
39.0%
40.5%