Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Frost 56.4% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 52.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 53.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Duchene
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Duchene
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Duchene
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
56.0% (755)
-4.9%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
60.1% (173)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
88.9% (9)
-72.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +72.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Duchene
Frost
Home
51.7% (201)
57.3% (497)
Away
52.5% (236)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Duchene
Frost
P1
49.0%
60.2%
P2
57.1%
56.0%
P3
49.2%
54.8%
OT
60.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |