Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Frost 50.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 86.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 75.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Duchene
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Duchene
Frost
Last 9: Duchene 7-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
49.7% (3,652)
+4.2%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
55.4% (632)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
55.0% (40)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Duchene
Frost
Home
55.6% (6,430)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Duchene
Frost
P1
54.4%
51.2%
P2
54.5%
51.3%
P3
53.4%
48.8%
OT
56.3%
64.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |