Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Buchnevich 43.3% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 89.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 83.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 78.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 83.6%
83.6%
16.4%
Duchene
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Buchnevich
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Buchnevich
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
40.5% (190)
+10.6%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
42.9% (14)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
30.0% (10)
-13.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Buchnevich is 37.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Duchene
Buchnevich
Home
51.7% (201)
40.7% (118)
Away
52.5% (236)
39.6% (96)
By Period
Duchene
Buchnevich
P1
49.0%
42.3%
P2
57.1%
37.5%
P3
49.2%
40.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:46 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 06:22 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |