Matt Duchene vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+5.8%)
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.5%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.8%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 54.5%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
46.0% (250)
+5.1%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
70.6% (17)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
31.8% (22)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Nugent-Hopkins has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
51.7% (201)
50.3% (175)
Away
52.5% (236)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
49.0%
48.5%
P2
57.1%
45.9%
P3
49.2%
46.5%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%