Matt Duchene vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (68% H2H, 44 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 60-40 in 100 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 93.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 89.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 91.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 91.4%
91.4%
8.6%
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
40
(100 meetings)
60
40
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Duchene 2-8 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
9
14
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
21
12
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
30
14
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
44 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
44.8% (8,775)
+9.1%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
50.6% (844)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
37.8% (880)
+11.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,858).
Home / Away
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
55.6% (6,430)
46.5% (5,361)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
42.8% (5,150)
By Period
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
54.4%
45.1%
P2
54.5%
43.9%
P3
53.4%
45.2%
OT
56.3%
43.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:26 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:20 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |