Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 69.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 68.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Duchene
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Duchene
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Duchene
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
49.3% (670)
+3.7%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
53.7% (121)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
33.3% (3)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stamkos
Home
54.9% (408)
54.0% (400)
Away
50.0% (432)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Duchene
Stamkos
P1
52.5%
48.6%
P2
51.7%
54.5%
P3
53.6%
45.4%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.4%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |