Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 35-21 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 71.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 75.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Duchene
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
21
(56 meetings)
35
21
Duchene
Stamkos
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
13
6
Duchene
Stamkos
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
13
10
Duchene
Stamkos
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
9
5
Duchene
Stamkos
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
50.5% (9,825)
+3.4%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
55.2% (1,729)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
49.6% (827)
-0.5%
On even strength, Duchene has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,518).
Duchene shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stamkos
Home
55.6% (6,430)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Duchene
Stamkos
P1
54.4%
49.2%
P2
54.5%
52.7%
P3
53.4%
50.9%
OT
56.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 18:19 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 19:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 2 | 15:46 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2 | 11:15 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2 | 00:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |