Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 57.0%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 52.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 65.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Duchene
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Duchene
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
57.1% (368)
-6.0%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
55.2% (96)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
50.0% (10)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stamkos
Home
51.7% (201)
53.9% (230)
Away
52.5% (236)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Duchene
Stamkos
P1
49.0%
56.7%
P2
57.1%
54.1%
P3
49.2%
59.2%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |