Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Zegras 42.6% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 84.3%
Defensive zone
Zegras 51.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 70.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Duchene
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
41.1% (559)
+12.8%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
50.0% (12)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
50.0% (2)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Duchene shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zegras
Home
54.9% (113)
45.7% (247)
Away
51.4% (146)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Duchene
Zegras
P1
54.9%
45.5%
P2
52.7%
36.8%
P3
51.9%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.6%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.9%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |