Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +19.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Zegras 37.0% (+19.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 58.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.3%
Neutral zone
Zegras 54.8%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Duchene
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Duchene
Zegras
Last 5: Duchene 2-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
2
3
Duchene
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
33.0% (264)
+18.1%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
32.1% (56)
+29.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
50.0% (2)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zegras
Home
51.7% (201)
35.3% (173)
Away
52.5% (236)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Duchene
Zegras
P1
49.0%
33.0%
P2
57.1%
35.7%
P3
49.2%
29.7%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:05 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 06:33 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 04:13 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |