Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Zegras 39.5% (+15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 59.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 87.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 76.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Duchene
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Duchene
Zegras
Last 7: Duchene 4-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
2
3
Duchene
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,438)
39.0% (1,703)
+14.9%
Power Play
57.0% (1,677)
38.5% (148)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
25.0% (8)
+24.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Duchene shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zegras
Home
55.6% (6,430)
40.5% (908)
Away
52.7% (6,177)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Duchene
Zegras
P1
54.4%
40.0%
P2
54.5%
38.6%
P3
53.4%
38.2%
OT
56.3%
31.6%
Final 5 min
53.7%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:05 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 06:33 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 04:13 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |