Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Hertl 55.4% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 82.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
McCarron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McCarron
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
McCarron
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
5
0
McCarron
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
54.1% (717)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
61.9% (210)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
58.1% (31)
-3.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hertl
Home
54.6% (445)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.2% (478)
53.6% (466)
By Period
McCarron
Hertl
P1
53.6%
57.1%
P2
55.6%
54.0%
P3
53.7%
56.6%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
54.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |