Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Hertl 57.5% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 93.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 67.3%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
McCarron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
McCarron
Hertl
Last 10: McCarron 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
McCarron
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
2
McCarron
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
McCarron
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
58.7% (858)
-5.9%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
55.8% (285)
-37.6%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
62.9% (35)
-10.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +37.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hertl
Home
52.8% (477)
60.1% (599)
Away
51.8% (442)
56.1% (579)
By Period
McCarron
Hertl
P1
56.2%
52.4%
P2
52.4%
63.9%
P3
48.7%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |