Michael McCarron vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-14 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 82.4%
Neutral zone
McCarron 56.7%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
McCarron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
20
(34 meetings)
14
20
McCarron
Hertl
Last 10: McCarron 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
14
McCarron
Hertl
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
10
3
McCarron
Hertl
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
McCarron
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (2,926)
53.9% (8,303)
-0.6%
Power Play
45.3% (86)
59.2% (1,995)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
50.1% (469)
46.3% (806)
+3.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCarron is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,425).
McCarron shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hertl
Home
52.3% (1,696)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
53.1% (1,785)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
McCarron
Hertl
P1
53.8%
53.6%
P2
52.3%
54.2%
P3
51.9%
55.3%
OT
33.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |