Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Hertl 55.4% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.5%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 81.3%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 58.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Zibanejad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Zibanejad
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Zibanejad
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
0
Zibanejad
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (870)
54.1% (717)
-1.2%
Power Play
53.5% (43)
61.9% (210)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (143)
58.1% (31)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Zibanejad shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Hertl
Home
55.1% (501)
58.1% (492)
Away
49.2% (555)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Zibanejad
Hertl
P1
57.5%
57.1%
P2
50.7%
54.0%
P3
47.9%
56.6%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
52.0%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |