Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 35 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 50.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 57-47 in 104 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 51.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 54.5%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 51.0%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Zibanejad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
57
(104 meetings)
47
57
Zibanejad
Hertl
Last 10: Zibanejad 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
13
22
Zibanejad
Hertl
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
15
19
Zibanejad
Hertl
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
19
16
Zibanejad
Hertl
35 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (11,756)
53.9% (8,303)
-3.0%
Power Play
52.2% (1,852)
59.2% (1,995)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (1,796)
46.3% (806)
-4.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,710).
Zibanejad shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Hertl
Home
51.6% (7,603)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.3% (7,802)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Zibanejad
Hertl
P1
50.4%
53.6%
P2
49.7%
54.2%
P3
49.9%
55.3%
OT
48.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |