Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 74.5%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 50.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Zibanejad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Zibanejad
Hertl
Last 5: Zibanejad 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Zibanejad
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
58.7% (858)
-5.4%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
55.8% (285)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (147)
62.9% (35)
-16.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Zibanejad shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Hertl
Home
49.8% (466)
60.1% (599)
Away
54.0% (530)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Zibanejad
Hertl
P1
52.9%
52.4%
P2
51.2%
63.9%
P3
51.7%
58.5%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |