Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Paul 53.6% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 84.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 55.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 72.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Frost
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
53.7% (354)
+2.3%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
59.0% (61)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
52.9% (34)
+36.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +36.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Frost
Paul
Home
57.3% (497)
55.1% (216)
Away
56.8% (440)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Frost
Paul
P1
60.2%
54.9%
P2
56.0%
54.5%
P3
54.8%
54.3%
OT
63.6%
44.4%
Final 5 min
52.6%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |