Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Paul 52.2% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 76.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 66.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 53.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Frost
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Frost
Paul
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Frost
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
3
Frost
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
4
7
Frost
Paul
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
52.6% (3,823)
-2.9%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
56.2% (484)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
46.9% (576)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Frost
Paul
Home
51.4% (2,101)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Frost
Paul
P1
51.2%
53.8%
P2
51.3%
51.0%
P3
48.8%
52.2%
OT
64.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 12:21 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:05 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:22 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |