Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Frost wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Monahan 54.5% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 75.4%
Defensive zone
Frost 54.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 62.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Frost
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Frost
Monahan
Last 6: Frost 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
4
Frost
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
57.1% (871)
-8.5%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
53.1% (262)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
44.6% (139)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Frost shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Frost
Monahan
Home
49.9% (399)
55.3% (644)
Away
49.1% (424)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Frost
Monahan
P1
51.2%
53.9%
P2
53.9%
55.3%
P3
42.7%
54.4%
OT
40.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.5%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |