Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Monahan 52.5% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 82.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 67.9%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Frost
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Frost
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Frost
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
53.0% (874)
+3.0%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
54.7% (161)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
47.5% (101)
+41.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Frost
Monahan
Home
57.3% (497)
53.8% (558)
Away
56.8% (440)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Frost
Monahan
P1
60.2%
49.5%
P2
56.0%
54.8%
P3
54.8%
52.8%
OT
63.6%
61.9%
Final 5 min
52.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:44 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |