Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.1% vs 57.6%). Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 72.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 77.6%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 51.3%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Frost
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Frost
Karlsson
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
4
Frost
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
3
1
Frost
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
58.5% (135)
-2.5%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
80.0% (5)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
44.4% (18)
+44.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Frost
Karlsson
Home
57.3% (497)
63.7% (91)
Away
56.8% (440)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Frost
Karlsson
P1
60.2%
54.4%
P2
56.0%
66.7%
P3
54.8%
51.9%
OT
63.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:55 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:10 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 04:11 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:40 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:42 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |